AGP Executive Report

Belarus-Russia Military Ties: Belarus Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin met Russia’s top brass in Moscow to discuss military-technical cooperation and visit a defense-industry site, with a CSTO defense ministers’ meeting on the agenda. Regional Security Pressure: Belarus’ UN Geneva envoy Larisa Belskaya warned that NATO and EU defense spending is rising fast, citing growing threats and higher military budgets in Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. EU Sanctions & Oil: The EU is preparing a 21st Russia sanctions package aimed at oil revenues and evasion networks, including efforts to keep the oil price cap from automatically rising. Ukraine War Spillover: Ukrainian long-range drone and missile strikes hit targets around St Petersburg and other western regions, while Russia says it shot down hundreds of drones. Baltic Readiness Gaps: Lithuania’s drone shelter alert exposed locked, poorly maintained shelters, highlighting uneven civil defense planning near Belarus. Belarus in the Spotlight via Sports: The International Fencing Federation lifted restrictions on Russian and Belarusian teams, allowing competition under national flags from this year’s World Championships. Belagro & Food Security: Belarus’ Belagro agro expo opened in Minsk, alongside Belarus-FAO talks where sanctions on potash exports were raised.

Belarus–FAO Talks: Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov met FAO chief Qu Dongyu in Minsk during Belagro-2026, pushing cooperation on agriculture, forestry and food security, and flagging sanctions limits on Belarus potash exports. Belarus–DPRK Cooperation: Ryzhenkov met DPRK Minister Yun Jong Ho, agreeing to speed up preparations for the next Belarus–DPRK joint trade commission, with focus on agriculture, food security and healthcare. Belarus–Serbia Labor Links: Ambassador Sergei Malinovsky met Serbia’s labor minister to deepen cooperation on labor and social protection and to preserve historical memory. Oman–Belarus Economic Drive: Oman’s agriculture and business delegation is in Minsk for Belagro-2026, discussing investment and industrial partnerships (including food processing and machinery) and reaffirming joint projects in baby food and milk drying. EU Sanctions Push: The EU is preparing a 21st Russia sanctions package aimed at oil revenues and evasion networks, while debating how to keep the oil price cap from rising. Regional Security Uncertainty: Lithuania says the next U.S. troop rotation is “under review,” raising the prospect of a gap in the permanent U.S. armored battalion presence. Sports Diplomacy Shift: The International Fencing Federation lifted restrictions on Russian and Belarusian teams, allowing athletes to compete under national flags and anthems from the 2026 World Championships. Armenia Referendum Row: Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan rejected calls for an EU-vs-EAEU referendum as premature, saying no vote makes sense until Armenia applies for EU membership.

Belarus-EU Border Security: Ireland’s justice minister Jim O’Callaghan is in Prague and Warsaw for talks with Czech and Polish counterparts, including a visit to the EU’s eastern border with Belarus to brief on migration, organized crime, and rule-of-law priorities ahead of Ireland’s EU Council presidency. Armenia-EAEU vs EU Pressure: Russia’s Putin called Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan amid renewed pressure for an EU-vs-EAEU referendum; the EU says Moscow is running hybrid influence to sway Armenia’s parliamentary vote, while Pashinyan insists the choice is “theoretical” until Armenia applies for EU candidacy. Belarus as a security concern: Ukraine’s Budanov warns Kyiv must stay ready for any Belarus-based provocation, tying the risk to intensified contacts between Moscow and Lukashenko. Ukraine War Context: ISW says Russia’s spring-summer offensive has largely stalled, with limited territorial gains and losses. Finance & Society: VTB plans an online bank for children and teenagers (6–14), expanding digital payments and transfers. Labor Rights Watch: ITUC adds Argentina and Panama to its worst workers’ rights list, while Belarus remains on the bottom tier.

Belarus-Armenia/EAEU Pressure: At an EAEU summit in Astana, Belarus, Russia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan backed a call for Armenia to hold a referendum choosing EU integration or staying in the EAEU, warning of economic risks; Lukashenko urged Armenians not to “repeat what happened in Ukraine” amid election-season political games. Diplomatic Fallout: Russia recalled its ambassador to Armenia for consultations as EU-leaning steps strain EAEU ties, while Armenia’s PM Pashinyan dismissed the referendum as “unreasonable” for now. Ukraine War Spillover to Belarus: Ukrainian officials again warned of threats tied to Belarus territory, while Budanov said Belarus must be met with readiness “so no one will have foolish ideas.” Belarus Sanctions: Ukraine synchronized new sanctions with the EU’s 20th package, targeting Belarusian oil and military-equipment producers and drone-related firms. EAEU Tech Agenda: EAEU leaders adopted a joint statement on responsible AI development, framing advanced tech as a driver of Eurasian integration. Workers’ Rights Watch: A global union report ranked Belarus among the worst for workers’ rights, alongside Argentina, Panama and others, citing systemic violations and shrinking civic space.

Belarus-Ukraine Security Threats: Alexander Lukashenko doubled down on warnings after Kyiv’s “500 targets” talk, saying Ukraine’s military “does not want” a war with Belarus while he points to “one very serious target” near the border and claims his side has matching targets. Ukraine-Russia Energy Strikes: Kyiv denied a drone hit on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, while reporting fresh overnight attacks on Russian energy nodes—Saratov oil refinery, a Rostov fuel depot, and the Lazarevo pumping station—framing them as “long-range sanctions” against Moscow’s war funding. Peace Talks Before Winter: Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine wants to restart diplomacy ahead of winter, arguing Russia has lost initiative since late 2025 and that talks depend on pressure and sanctions. Armenia and EAEU vs EU Pressure: Belarus urged Armenians to move cautiously on any EU pivot “so what happened in Ukraine is not repeated,” as EAEU leaders push for an Armenia referendum and Yerevan officials say the choice only becomes “unavoidable” later. Baltics Drone Incursions: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania report rising Ukrainian drone incursions, with experts split between electronic warfare rerouting and autonomous navigation explanations. EU Justice Cooperation: Ireland’s Jim O’Callaghan begins EU bilateral visits in Prague and Warsaw, including a border-security briefing tied to Belarus.

Belarus-Ukraine Tensions: Alexander Lukashenko traded threats with Ukraine after Kyiv’s drone commander warned of “500 targets” in Belarus, saying Minsk has “one very serious target” with “exact coordinates” near Belarus and warning against any “Ukrainian scenario” for Armenia. Nuclear & Energy Security: Ukraine denied Russia’s claim of a drone strike on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, while reporting new hits on Russian energy infrastructure including the Saratov oil refinery and a fuel depot in Rostov; the IAEA said it is “seriously concerned” about the alleged nuclear-site incident. Sanctions & EU Alignment: Zelensky signed decrees harmonizing Ukraine’s sanctions with the EU’s 20th package, adding Russian military-linked firms and also targeting a Belarusian oil exporter. Regional Air-Defense Push: Estonia installed its first stationary drone-detection systems on the Russia border, aiming to cover the whole frontier by year-end. Belarus Watch on Missile Logistics: Opposition-linked railway monitoring claims Russian Oreshnik-related shipments were delivered to the former Krichev-6 airfield area, raising fresh concerns about Belarus as a launchpad. Economy & Finance: Belarusian officials say “cryptobanks” are being created under National Bank rules, with compliance checks for high-risk crypto flows.

Polish Church Pressure: Belarus expelled five Polish Catholic priests and one monk tied to the Minsk-Mogilev archdiocese, with residence permits reportedly denied or not renewed, leaving some parishes without clergy. Armenia-EAEU vs EU Clash: Russia recalled its ambassador to Armenia over Yerevan’s EU rapprochement; Moscow and EAEU leaders backed a referendum framing EU choice as a threat to EAEU economic security, while Belarus’ Lukashenko said the bloc doesn’t want Armenia to leave but will respect the Armenian people’s decision. Belarus in the Sanctions Orbit: Ukraine signed decrees aligning sanctions with the EU’s 20th package, adding 16 Russians and 31 companies including a Belarus-linked petroleum exporter. Sports as Geopolitics: Ukrainian tennis player Oleksandra Oliynykova renewed her attack on Russian and Belarusian players over war-linked propaganda and called for mechanisms to stop acceptance of such stances. Security & Borders: NATO and European defense moves continue as Germany and the Netherlands take on a new NATO command centre in the Baltics, amid rising drone-incursion fears near Belarus and Russia. Diplomatic Signals: Lukashenko said he offered Macron a path to Minsk for talks with Putin, while also discussing potash exports and “reorientation” of markets. Crime & Finance Links: Poland wrapped a case on money laundering and tax fraud where beneficiaries used entities registered in Russia and Belarus. North Korea- Belarus/Russia: A North Korean economic delegation is set to join events in Minsk and Russia, signaling continued ties.

Armenia-EU Pressure: Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan backed a nationwide referendum in Armenia on choosing the EU or staying in the EAEU, warning of “significant risks” to EAEU economic security and commissioning a December 2026 report on possible suspension consequences. Belarus Diplomacy: Alexander Lukashenko said he urged Emmanuel Macron to push for direct EU-Russia talks, proposing a Minsk “man-to-man” meeting with Putin, while also stressing Belarus would not oppose Armenians’ will if they vote to leave the EAEU. EAEU Integration Push: At the Astana summit, leaders highlighted deeper integration via digitisation and AI, with EAEU GDP topping about $3.02T in 2025 and mutual trade expected to exceed $100B in 2026. Missile Tech Scrutiny: Ukrainian experts claimed the Russian Oreshnik used in January was assembled in 2017 from components dating to 2016 or earlier, including parts produced in Russia and Belarus. Regional Security Spillover: Romania reported a Russian drone strike on an apartment building in Galați, injuring civilians, as NATO allies scrambled assets and Romania vowed to accelerate joint drone production with Ukraine. Ukraine Attack Warnings: Zelensky warned of a major Russian strike as early as tonight/tomorrow, urging civilians to use shelters.

Belarus-France Diplomacy: Alexander Lukashenko says Macron will send a trusted ally to Minsk for a fact-finding mission, after a phone call where Lukashenko joked about arranging “man-to-man” talks with Putin in Belarus. He also reiterated that Minsk would use nuclear weapons only if Belarus is attacked. EAEU Integration Push: At the Astana summit, EAEU leaders backed deeper economic integration via digitisation and AI, with trade turnover projected to top $100B in 2026 and a push toward a unified digital space. Armenia Pressure Inside the Bloc: Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan warned Armenia it could face suspension later this year over EU accession plans, and urged a referendum offering voters a choice between the EU and the EAEU, with a report on consequences due in December 2026. Baltic Security Measures: Latvia has started installing “dragon’s teeth” anti-tank barriers on the border with Russia, expanding its defense infrastructure. Belarus in International Sport: IIHF moves Belarusian teams back into 2026-27 world championships, while Russia’s participation remains case-by-case. Ukraine War Spillover: Ukraine says it has disrupted a Black Sea smuggling channel moving drones and weapons, and Belarus is again discussed as a potential route for threats.

EAEU Summit in Astana: EAEU leaders opened the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council meeting in Kazakhstan with Putin and Lukashenko in attendance, while Armenia’s PM Nikol Pashinyan skipped the event amid his election campaign; the agenda centers on integration priorities, natural monopolies, and the EDB’s 20-year performance. Belarus-Ukraine War Risk: Ukraine’s UN envoy Andrii Melnyk warned that Kremlin pressure is pushing Minsk toward deeper involvement, citing mobilization, missile deployments, and nuclear-related drills—while Kyiv says it is strengthening the Belarus border and preparing for possible provocations. Oreshnik Missile Fallout: Ukraine presented European ambassadors with missile and drone components, saying parts found in Russia’s “Oreshnik” included items manufactured at a Belarusian factory, as US lawmakers argue the strike is backfiring by boosting Ukraine’s technical insight. NATO Deterrence Moves: Romania urged NATO Article 4 after a Russian drone hit an apartment block, and Latvia began installing “dragon’s teeth” anti-tank barriers along the Russia border as NATO expands command and drone-defence efforts. Sports and Sanctions Signals: Belarus was reinstated for IIHF competition next season, while Lithuania discussed legal bans on Russians and Belarusians in sports and science events. Human Rights: Viasna recognized 16 more people as political prisoners, bringing the total to 854.

Belarus-Ukraine War Risk: Ukraine’s border guard says there’s no current buildup of Russian troops in Belarus, but warns Minsk could later allow redeployment to prepared bases—keeping pressure on Belarusian defenses along the whole border. Belarusian Opposition in Kyiv: Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya handed medals to Belarusian volunteers fighting with Ukraine, including the Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment, and reiterated that a free Ukraine means a free Belarus while opposing any easing of sanctions. Nuclear Messaging: Belarus’ foreign ministry and Deputy FM Ihar Sakreta framed joint Belarus-Russia nuclear exercises as NPT-compliant and “defensive,” while also blaming NATO’s growing presence near Belarus for the need for deterrence. EU Diplomacy: EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas warned member states not to get pulled into a “Russian trap” over who would represent Europe in peace talks, stressing strategy over personalities. Regional Security Build-Up: Latvia has begun installing “dragon’s teeth” anti-tank barriers on the Russia border as part of the Baltic Defense Line, alongside anti-drone and anti-mobility measures. Sanctions & Tech Controls: Ukraine displayed missile/drone components from foreign suppliers and highlighted Belarus-linked circuit boards for the Oreshnik system, calling for tighter controls on Belarus access to electronics. EAEU Politics: Uzbekistan’s president is set to attend the EAEU summit in Astana, while Armenia’s Pashinyan signals he won’t withdraw from the bloc—yet keeps distance from Russia-led security formats.

Belarus-Ukraine War Risk: Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems commander warned Minsk that Kyiv already has “the first 500 targets” ready if Belarus directly enters Russia’s war, urging Lukashenka not to “get in Ukraine’s way.” Democratic Belarus in Kyiv: Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya met President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv for talks on Belarus-Ukraine cooperation and regional security, with Zelensky mocking Lukashenka’s claim he was ready to meet “the presidents.” Border Militarization: Latvia began deploying anti-mobility “dragon’s teeth” along the Russia-Belarus border, aiming to block equipment movement where private land was expropriated for defense infrastructure. Domestic Belarus Politics Debate: Belarusian democratic forces renewed an argument over “negotiations or sanctions” after Maria Kalesnikava’s remarks, with supporters and critics clashing online over strategy for ending repression. International Pressure on Minsk: Canada advanced legislation to expand sanctions against transnational repression, with Kremlin critics Vladimir Kara-Murza and Bill Browder backing the bill. EAEU/EU Pressure Spillover: Russia warned Armenia that EU accession could trigger a halt to gas, oil products, and diamond supplies—another reminder of how Minsk’s regional partners face coercion.

Belarus-Ukraine War Risk: Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya opened a Mission of Belarusian Democratic Forces in Kyiv, aiming to coordinate support for Belarusians and volunteers and keep cooperation with Ukraine “systemic and sustainable.” POW and Recruitment: Ukraine’s Coordination Headquarters met Tsikhanouskaya and her team, briefing on prisoner-of-war work and describing how Belarusian citizens are recruited into Russian forces, including high death rates. Border Tensions: Zelensky warned of a possible Belarus-linked attack and said Ukraine has identified 500 targets in Belarus if Minsk joins Russia; Ukraine also reports daily drone incidents near the border. NATO and Drones: The UK and Poland signed a defense pact, while Lithuania hosted U.S. Army training on anti-drone systems; Baltic states continue to report drone incursions and electronic interference. Sanctions and Law: Canada’s MPs heard Kremlin critics Vladimir Kara-Murza and Bill Browder back a bill to expand sanctions for transnational repression. Armenia Gas Pressure: Zakharova said Russia notified Armenia it could denounce gas/oil/diamond supplies if Yerevan joins the EU. Cyber: A Russian-linked GlasswormRAT botnet was disrupted via coordinated takedown efforts.

Belarus-Ukraine War Pressure: Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems commander “Magyar” warned Minsk that Kyiv already has “the first 500 targets” ready if Lukashenko joins the war—while Belarusian officials keep insisting drones are probing border infrastructure. Baltic Drone Fallout: Drone incursions tied to the Ukraine–Russia conflict are driving NATO’s northern flank jitters; Latvia says it will deploy mobile drone-interceptor units to its eastern border soon. EU Security Playbook: EU Commission President von der Leyen urged a protocol for “hybrid situations” after Baltic airspace incidents, pushing faster use of EU tools. EU Fertiliser Relief: Brussels moved to suspend key nitrogen fertiliser duties for a year to cut costs and reduce reliance on Russia/Belarus. Belarus Economy: Prime Minister Aliaksandr Turchyn says Belarusian goods exports are still trending up, with early Q2 data expected to be published later this week. Armenia Gas Warning: Russia warned Armenia it could halt gas, oil products and diamond supplies over Yerevan’s EU alignment.

Belarus-Ukraine War Scare: Ukraine says it has already marked “the first 500 targets” in Belarus in case Lukashenko moves the country into the war, while Minsk counters with claims of “daily” Ukrainian drone incursions and alleged attacks on border infrastructure. Opposition Diplomacy: In Kyiv, President Zelenskyy met exiled Belarus opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya—framing it as proof Lukashenko doesn’t represent Belarusians—and both sides stressed that sanctions relief must not be used to reward Minsk for war involvement. Baltic Security Push: EU chief Ursula von der Leyen called for a unified drone alert system after drone disruptions across the Baltics; Latvia plans interceptor drone units and automated .50-cal turrets, as Lithuania warns Russia can spoof GPS signals deep into Europe from Kaliningrad. Regional Pressure: Poland and the UK sign a defense treaty in London, underscoring how Belarus sits at the center of NATO’s eastern risk map. CIS Security Rhetoric: Russia’s FSB chief warns Western agencies may use Daesh-linked militants as proxies against Iran, adding to the week’s broader “security” messaging.

Kyiv Under “Systematic Strikes” Pressure: Russia escalated its rhetoric, warning foreign diplomats and citizens to leave Kyiv as it threatens a new wave of attacks tied to Ukraine’s defense industry—while Ukraine and EU officials say they won’t be pushed into fear. Belarus-Ukraine Political Link: Belarus opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya arrived in Kyiv for her first working visit, meeting Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, who highlighted Belarusian volunteers’ losses and called Lukashenko co-responsible for aggression—alongside a new Ukraine “ambassador-at-large” role to coordinate with democratic Belarus. Sanctions vs. Potash Trade: The US urged Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine to allow Belarusian potash exports via their routes; Lithuania’s FM says EU potash sanctions won’t be reviewed until Feb 2027, though talks with Washington are ongoing. Tech Sovereignty Push: Belarus approved a framework to fund “technological sovereignty” projects and expanded financial rules to include crypto tokens as underlying assets. Security & Influence: A Belarus-linked aviation parts case in the US points to shadow supply chains to Russia, while cyber reporting flags new tactics by the Cloud Atlas group.